California is bracing for hazardous waves, reaching up to 16 feet in size, which are set to return to its coast, driven by a robust El Niño pattern in the Pacific Ocean. While not expected to be as severe as the waves that pounded the state last week, experts note that such occurrences are becoming more frequent due to global warming’s impact on extreme weather events and rising sea levels. This shift poses a heightened risk of coastal flooding, a concern that becomes increasingly pronounced as climate change continues to influence weather patterns.
El Niño and Increasing Coastal Risks:
The current El Niño event is contributing to larger, more energetic waves along the California coast. El Niño patterns bring about impactful winter storms, higher sea levels, and more severe erosion. The ongoing El Niño serves as a glimpse into the future, indicating that as sea levels rise, the damage from such events is expected to escalate. This is particularly worrisome for California, where extensive development along the coastline, coupled with the rising sea levels, places many structures at risk of coastal flooding.
Concerns Amid Dynamic Coastal Environment:
Patrick Barnard, a research geologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, expresses concern about California’s dynamic coastal environment. He points out that the development of beachfront properties occurred on a “razor-thin margin,” especially in the 1950s and 60s when sea level rise was not a consideration. However, with an anticipated three feet of sea level rise by the end of the 21st century, the vulnerabilities of these coastal areas are becoming increasingly apparent.
Impact of El Niño on Wave Energy:
El Niño events, known for bringing larger and more energetic waves, have a notable impact on wave energy. The last El Niño saw a 50% increase in wave energy compared to a typical winter, leading to higher sea levels along parts of the California coast. This, coupled with climate change-driven rising sea levels, results in more significant coastal impacts, increased erosion, and heightened flood risks during El Niño events.
Growing Body of Research:
Research examining data dating back to the 1930s indicates a rise in the average height of winter waves along the California coast due to climate change. While some evidence suggests that El Niños may be becoming more extreme, researchers emphasize the need for further study to draw definitive conclusions. The ongoing trend of sea level rise along the West Coast, approximately 10 inches over the last century, is accelerating and setting the stage for more impactful wave events.
Forecasting Future Challenges:
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projects that the current El Niño may add one to eight days of high tide flooding above the 2000 average along the West Coast. This projection, combined with the increase in flood days due to sea level rise, underscores the growing challenges faced by coastal communities. The more frequent occurrences of mild and moderate flooding erode the resilience of the coast, leaving shorelines stressed and susceptible to substantial damages during more significant storm events.
Understanding Extreme Wave Events:
Recent extreme wave events, such as the one in Ventura on December 28, underscore the complexity of forecasting and understanding such occurrences. While colloquially termed a “rogue wave,” scientists use a more precise vocabulary to describe these events, often attributing them to low-frequency, gravity-induced waves originating offshore. Such events, including sneaker waves and long waves, pose dangers and contribute to the overall stress on coastal areas.
California’s ongoing battle with hazardous waves, exacerbated by El Niño and fueled by climate change, highlights the urgent need for adaptive strategies and resilient coastal management. As extreme weather events become more frequent, and sea levels continue to rise, the state must navigate the delicate balance between coastal development and safeguarding vulnerable regions. Understanding the dynamics of wave events, coupled with proactive measures to address climate change, will be crucial in mitigating the escalating risks along California’s coastline.