Scientists’ warnings have materialized: Earth has concluded what experts are deeming its hottest year since record-keeping began, potentially marking the warmest in the last 125,000 years.
As we approach the close of 2023, the data for December, while not yet officially validated, was deemed “locked in” by mid-December, according to Gavin Schmidt, a scientist at NASA. With the consistent trend of extremely high temperatures over the past six months, the chances of December having a significant impact on altering the final results were highly unlikely.
Robert Rohde of Berkeley Earth emphasized in mid-December that given the circumstances, it was beyond the point where any normal process could prevent 2023 from claiming the title of the hottest year. Official declarations from reputable organizations such as the Copernicus Climate Change Service in Europe, NASA, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the U.S. are expected to announce 2023 as the “warmest year on record” in the coming weeks.
What adds to the concern is that, as experts highlight, “the rate of warming over the past century has no precedent as far back as we are able to look, not only hundreds or thousands, but many millions of years,” as mentioned in University of Pennsylvania meteorologist Michael Mann’s book “Our Fragile Moment.”
Mann emphasized the unprecedented nature of the current situation: “We are engaged in an unprecedented experiment with our planet.” He noted that while there is still time to avert catastrophic climate consequences, the window of opportunity is narrowing.
The trend of each year since 2014 ranking among the top 10 warmest years since the commencement of temperature recording is not new. NASA and NOAA data have consistently shown increases in global average temperatures compared to the previous century. The year 2016, influenced by a robust El Niño, held the record for the warmest year until it was matched by 2020.
In 2023, the influence of marine heatwaves and the development of another El Niño became prominent factors affecting Earth’s temperatures. By November, NOAA reported that the global surface temperature from January to November was 2.07 degrees Fahrenheit above the 1901-2000 average of 57.2 degrees. This surpassed the 2016 average for the same period by more than a tenth of a degree.
The only remaining question is the extent of 2023’s warmth as the world’s climate agencies finalize their analyses over the next couple of weeks.
Global experts, including those from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, have consistently warned that the long-term increase in the global average temperature should be limited to below 1.5 – 2.0 degrees Celsius to avoid severe consequences. These consequences include higher sea levels, an increased frequency of intense heatwaves leading to loss of life, agricultural devastation, wildlife casualties, and overall rising temperatures.